New and Used LCV Market Delivers a Mixed Picture in May
The light commercial vehicle (LCV) sector entered the summer with something of a split personality. According to Andy Picton, specialist LCV analyst at JD Power (Glass's), May's performance across both the new and used van markets was best described as "mixed" — a word that might sound vague on the surface, but carries significant weight when you understand the dynamics currently shaping the commercial vehicle landscape. For fleet operators, dealers, and businesses reliant on vans for daily operations, understanding what is driving this uneven performance is essential for making informed purchasing and remarketing decisions in the months ahead.
What Does "Mixed" Actually Mean for the LCV Sector?
In market analysis, "mixed" is rarely a neutral term. It typically signals divergence — where certain segments, vehicle types, or price points are performing strongly while others lag behind. For the LCV market in May, this divergence appears to be playing out across multiple dimensions: between new and used vehicle activity, between vehicle size classes, and between buyer types ranging from sole traders to large fleet operators.
Andy Picton's role at JD Power (Glass's) gives him one of the most data-rich vantage points in the UK commercial vehicle space. Glass's, long regarded as an authoritative source of vehicle valuations and market intelligence, provides the kind of granular insight that helps industry professionals see beyond headline registration figures. When an analyst of Picton's calibre signals mixed conditions, it is a prompt for the market to look more carefully at the detail beneath the surface numbers.
New LCV Market: Demand Under Pressure
On the new van side of the market, conditions in May reflected some of the broader headwinds affecting commercial vehicle buyers across the UK. Fleet procurement cycles have been disrupted in recent years by supply chain instability, shifting interest rates, and an evolving regulatory environment — particularly around zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates that are gradually reshaping which vans manufacturers prioritise for production and which buyers are incentivised to consider.
For many businesses, the decision to commit to new LCV purchases has become more complex. The transition to electric vans continues to gather pace in terms of model availability, but the total cost of ownership equation — factoring in charging infrastructure, higher upfront costs, and residual value uncertainty — remains a genuine barrier for a large proportion of the SME market. This hesitation among smaller operators can suppress new registration volumes even when underlying demand for van-based services remains strong.
At the same time, larger fleet operators who are better positioned to absorb the costs of electrification are beginning to place significant orders for electric LCVs, creating pockets of strong activity in what is otherwise a cautious new market. This contrast between large fleet confidence and SME hesitation is one of the defining features of "mixed" conditions in the new van space.
Used LCV Market: Resilience Meets Recalibration
The used van market tells a somewhat different story, though it is not without its own complications. Used LCV values have been recalibrating after the historically elevated levels seen during and immediately after the pandemic period, when supply constraints and surging demand for delivery and logistics vehicles pushed prices to record highs. As supply has gradually normalised, values have softened — but not uniformly.
Certain categories of used vans continue to attract strong buyer interest. Well-specified, low-mileage panel vans in popular configurations — particularly those in the medium and large size classes from trusted manufacturers — remain in demand as businesses seek proven, cost-effective workhorses without committing to the premium of a new vehicle. However, older stock and higher-mileage examples are facing more significant value pressure as buyers become more discerning and financing costs remain elevated.
The used electric van segment is also emerging as a notable subplot in the wider used LCV narrative. As early-adopter fleet operators cycle out their first-generation electric vans, a growing pool of used electric LCVs is entering the market. Residual values for these vehicles remain difficult to predict with confidence, and this uncertainty is reflected in dealer caution and buyer hesitancy in equal measure.
Key Factors Shaping LCV Market Sentiment
Several structural factors are contributing to the mixed conditions identified by Picton and the wider Glass's team:
- ZEV mandate compliance pressure: Manufacturers and large fleets are navigating the requirements of the ZEV mandate, which is influencing new model availability and fleet purchasing strategies throughout 2025.
- Interest rate environment: While there have been some reductions in base rates, the cost of finance for van acquisitions remains higher than the near-zero rate era, dampening appetite for new commitments across the SME sector.
- Residual value uncertainty for EVs: The used market for electric LCVs is still maturing, and the lack of a long-term track record for EV residuals creates friction in both new and used transactions.
- Economic confidence among small businesses: Van buyers at the sole trader and micro-business end of the market are sensitive to broader economic sentiment, and ongoing uncertainty about business costs continues to encourage caution.
- Model lifecycle timing: Several key LCV nameplates are mid-cycle or approaching refresh, which can temporarily suppress new registrations as buyers wait for updated versions to arrive.
What Fleet Buyers and Dealers Should Take Away
For fleet operators, May's mixed signals are a reminder that generic market optimism or pessimism rarely reflects the reality of individual purchasing decisions. The opportunity in the current environment lies in specificity — understanding which segments offer value, which residual value trajectories are most defensible, and how electrification timelines align with operational requirements.
For dealers operating in the used LCV space, selectivity in stock acquisition is more important than ever. Buying into segments where demand remains firm while being disciplined about stock that carries higher value risk will be the difference between healthy margins and difficult disposals as the year progresses.
Looking Ahead to the Second Half of 2025
The LCV market rarely moves in straight lines, and May's mixed performance should be viewed as a data point rather than a definitive trend. The second half of 2025 will be shaped by how quickly electric van adoption accelerates among smaller operators, how manufacturers respond to ZEV mandate pressures with pricing and incentive strategies, and whether broader economic conditions give SME buyers the confidence to commit to new or used commercial vehicle investment.
Andy Picton and the team at JD Power (Glass's) will continue to provide the market with the analytical depth needed to navigate these shifting conditions. For anyone operating in or adjacent to the LCV market, staying close to that kind of expert intelligence is not just useful — in a mixed market, it is essential.